On May 27, 2020, TessDrive published the story “CoViD-19 Slams Brakes On Electric Vehicle Sales Globally; Makers See It As Mere ‘Bump In The Road’” that described the slumping sales of internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered vehicles as well as that of electric vehicles (EV). In April 2020, energy research company Wood Mackenzie predicted more than a 40% drop in global sales of EVs by the end of 2020, supposedly due to the economic fallout caused primarily by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The story also aired a differing opinion, from EV advocacy group Plug In America, which stressed that the lengthy capital-investment timelines in infrastructure and vehicle production must also be considered, and that there were still enough reasons to be confident that the EV market would survive.
At the time, Wood Mackenzie only saw plummeting figures, primarily from the world’s EV market leader China which registered a worrying 21% drop in sales in January and a disastrous 80% in February 2020. This led the research company to ultimately predict a mere 1.3 million EV units to be sold globally by the end of 2020, compared to the 2.2 million units sold in 2019.
“Most new EV buyers are still first-time owners of the technology. The uncertainty and fear created by the outbreak have made consumers less inclined to adopt new technology,” said Ram Chandrasekaran, principal analyst for transportation and mobility at Wood Mackenzie. “Once the epidemic is contained in China, we suspect consumers will flock back to car dealers and reaffirm their confidence in EVs,” he added.
As for Europe and North America, bouncing back may take longer than expected, as these regions were several months behind China when the Covid-19 outbreak took place.
“Unfortunately for EV adoption, this is likely to lead to a plateauing of sales in the near term. While the pent-up demand from the pandemic will help a bounce-back in sales later in the year, new demand growth will (not be apparent) until 2021,” Chandrasekaran explained.
It turns out that the EV advocates were right. Since this forecast was made, EV sales have made a remarkable turnaround. In a May 3, 2021 article published online in ihsmarkit.com, by the end of 2020, global EV sales grew by 41%, to around 3 million units, as Europe overtook China as the EV market leader (https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/global-electric-vehicle-sales-grew-41-in-2020-more-growth-comi.html).
The article quotes the International Energy Agency (IEA) as declaring that EV sales in 2020 captured a record 4.6% share of the new vehicle market.
The article goes on to paint a bright future for EVs in the global market. It further quoted IEA’s April 2021 report “Global EV Outlook 2021”: “Growth will continue through this decade, with the number of EVs registered around the world increasing from about 10 million today to 145 million in 2030.”
It seems that the pandemic made many motorists appreciate the immediate effects of reduced carbon footprints in cities and communities where lockdowns were enforced. The cleaner air and clearer skies might have influenced future car buyers to consider EVs as the best alternative to sustain the positive outcomes of the pandemic to the environment.