The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated in late December 2022 that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production would have reached at least 300 million liters by the end of 2022. The estimate equates to 200% growth in 2022, which is significantly higher compared to the 2021 production of 100 million liters. More optimistic calculations estimate that total production in 2022 could even reach 450 million liters.
Photo credit: Jeffrey Surianto
Both scenarios position the SAF industry on the verge of an exponential capacity and production ramp-up toward an identified tipping point of 30 billion liters by 2030 with the right supporting policies.
Airlines are committed to achieving net zero CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions by 2050, and see SAF as a critical contributor. Current estimates expect SAF to account for 65% of the mitigation needed, requiring a production capacity of 450 billion liters annually in 2050.
Having agreed to a Long-Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) on climate at the 41st Assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in October 2022, governments now share the same target for aviation’s decarbonization and interest in the success of SAF.
200% growth in 2022: A Deeper Look
“There was at least triple the amount of SAF in the market in 2022 than in 2021. And airlines used every drop, even at very high prices. If more were available, they would have been purchased. That makes it clear that it is a supply issue and that market forces alone are insufficient to solve it. Governments who share the same 2050 net-zero goal must implement comprehensive production incentives for SAF. It is what they did to successfully transition economies to renewable sources of electricity. And it is what aviation needs to decarbonize,” stressed Willie Walsh, IATA director general.
Over 450,000 commercial flights have been operated using SAF, and the growing number of airlines signing offtake agreements with producers sends a clear signal to the markets that SAF is needed in larger quantities. So far, in 2022, around 40 offtake agreements have been announced.
300 airlines represented
IATA is the trade association for the world’s airlines, representing some 300 airlines, or 83%, of total air traffic. The group supports many areas of aviation activity and helps formulate industry policy on critical aviation issues. It commits to driving sustainability by implementing the best practices that minimize environmental impact and add social value. Also, it strives to carry on with its mission to represent, lead and serve the airline industry under strong governance principles that ensure transparency and accountability in its daily work.
According to IATA, until there are commercialized options for alternative power sources such as hydrogen, all of aviation’s SAF supply will be derived from biofuel refineries. These refineries produce renewable biodiesel, biogas, as well as SAF. Their refining capacity is set to grow by over 400% by 2025 compared to 2022. The challenge for aviation is to secure its supply of SAF from this capacity. And to do that successfully, governments need to put SAF production incentives similar to what is already in place for biogas and biodiesel. (Story and image courtesy of International Air Transport Association)